Bare Knuckle Pickups Forum
At The Back => Time Out => Topic started by: Afghan Dave on December 31, 2008, 02:50:21 PM
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Even whilest reading the latest Guitarist magazine you can't help but notice an undercurrent of dread at expected price rises in 2009 stemming from a weak exchange rate/economy.
Though worrying, I can't help but think that many craft led/low volume British companies could benefit but only if both they and the consumer hold their nerve.
Beside sufficient operating capital, I believe clearly communicating quality and a strong brand identity will be the defining characteristics required for any size business to survive the next 12 months. And many UK companies are well placed in this regard.
On a personal note I'm kinda (foolishly) optimistic about the challenges ahead but thankfully I'm not over-exposed with too hefty a debt load and it's not my first recession.
I'm ready to batten down the financial hatches and save toward some key purchases.
What do you guys think....
2009 - Friend or Foe?
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I think the used guitar market will do pretty well. Example, You can get a used Strat for a good price very easily from ebay, small guitar shops and guitar magazine adverts.
As for new guitars, british guitar makers may do slightly better as people look to companies closer to home, avoiding having to pay the middle man. Fender are raising prices on their guitars and Gibson's are already stupidly over priced.
We have a really good choice of british builders. To name a few, Feline, JJ guitars and Patrick Eggle. Each with good reputations and reasonable prices.
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Friend IMO
A recession is not a nuclear winter. Most people will keep their jobs and/or be able to find another one. Money still changes hands, things are still made, bought & sold.
Yes, there will be pain. Yes, some people will struggle.
On a personal note, the current economic climate has certainly changed my immediate purchasing plans. There's no way I'm importing a Jackson, Engl or Warmoth with the current £:$ & £:€ rates. However, other people stand to benefit from that - Feline & BKP will probably see more business from me.
FWIW, it's not my first recession either. I made a killing in the last one. Not that I'm complacent - things could go south very rapidly & I'm more exposed financially than I'd like. But I'm an optimist when it comes to transient economic conditions - there are always opportunities & fundamentally the capitalist system works....
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I saw it coming a mile off, I bought a few american bits of kit when the dollar was about 2.1 to the pound. My main guitar is Hungarian and amp British now though 8)
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I am an optimist and I really do not think that all the doom and gloom talk is going to help-if anything it'll bring about a recession. The rate of exchange is not good at the moment but things will change and find a new balance in time-a year ago the $ was worth 50p. One good thing will be that British exports will be cheaper. I am concerned about my job situation-it has been a worry all year in fact but I can't and wont spend my life worrying.I have been through recessions before and was in a poorer personal financial state then than I am now. Overall, I think that our society/economy will find a new balance and a lot of benefits will result but there will undoubtedly be pain for some.
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fundamentally the capitalist system works....
war, greed, exploitation of child workers in developing nations
frankly, i'm not sure it does work.
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fundamentally the capitalist system works....
war, greed, exploitation of child workers in developing nations
frankly, i'm not sure it does work.
You know of a system which eradicates war, greed and exploitation of child workers in developing nations?! Do tell... :wink:
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fundamentally the capitalist system works....
war, greed, exploitation of child workers in developing nations
frankly, i'm not sure it does work.
You know of a system which eradicates war, greed and exploitation of child workers in developing nations?! Do tell... :wink:
love 8)
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Total anarchy is the answer!!!
DOWN WITH ANTIDISESTABLISHMENTARIANISM!!!!!
j/k
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Hmmm :lol:
Well the way I see it is the pounds value is going to stay low for a long time due to our PM, who has been printing money basically. So while exporting will do ok, importing won't. Or going on holiday to the med and getting pissed up in tavernas!
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fundamentally the capitalist system works....
war, greed, exploitation of child workers in developing nations
frankly, i'm not sure it does work.
You know of a system which eradicates war, greed and exploitation of child workers in developing nations?! Do tell... Wink
love Cool
:lol: Good answer! :)
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^agreed.
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fundamentally the capitalist system works....
war, greed, exploitation of child workers in developing nations
frankly, i'm not sure it does work.
At best you can pin one of those three things on capitalism (& even that is highly tenuous)
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Friend IMO
A recession is not a nuclear winter. Most people will keep their jobs and/or be able to find another one. Money still changes hands, things are still made, bought & sold.
Yes, there will be pain. Yes, some people will struggle.
On a personal note, the current economic climate has certainly changed my immediate purchasing plans. There's no way I'm importing a Jackson, Engl or Warmoth with the current £:$ & £:€ rates. However, other people stand to benefit from that - Feline & BKP will probably see more business from me.
FWIW, it's not my first recession either. I made a killing in the last one. Not that I'm complacent - things could go south very rapidly & I'm more exposed financially than I'd like. But I'm an optimist when it comes to transient economic conditions - there are always opportunities & fundamentally the capitalist system works....
Pretty much agree with all of that.
The popular media makes things seem worse than they actually are - yes there will be pain, but the economy was living way beyond its means, quite frankly, for some time.
I think that there's a difference between capitalism and politics. Capitalism with the political will to do good is a good thing; albeit rare...
Mark.
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^The same could be said for any system of government, from national-socialism to communist uprising.
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Of course. It's just a framework for being decent or shitety.
People make the difference, not philosophy.
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Well put.
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Though worrying, I can't help but think that many craft led/low volume British companies could benefit but only if both they and the consumer hold their nerve.
We will still be trading as normal and despite the number of orders for new guitars having slowed over the last 8 months, thankfully we still have plenty to do and have a fairly healthy amount of repair work. But it can be nerve wracking to say the least.
Beside sufficient operating capital, I believe clearly communicating quality and a strong brand identity will be the defining characteristics required for any size business to survive the next 12 months. And many UK companies are well placed in this regard.
I agree with what you say here.
Cashflow and the ability to still pay bills and wages makes all the difference.
Sadly most small companies may find themselves in the "Use us or lose us" situation where people put off having stuff done because they are tightening their belts and it threatens putting the companies under and they may sadly not be around when you need them in the future.
On a personal note I'm kinda (foolishly) optimistic about the challenges ahead but thankfully I'm not over-exposed with too hefty a debt load and it's not my first recession.
I'm ready to batten down the financial hatches and save toward some key purchases.
Keeping your credit card debts from being too high so that all your money is wasted in interest charges is a sensible move.
Not wasting money on every silly thing that comes along but maybe investing in something good and solid that you will be cherishing & enjoying in years to come might be a good idea
Buying British where you can means that more people are kept in jobs with wages etc and it helps maintain our economy (not that it's possible to buy much British made stuff anymore)
Just my thoughts...
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Total anarchy is the answer!!!
DOWN WITH ANTIDISESTABLISHMENTARIANISM!!!!!
j/k
how is keeping the CoE the established church going to help with anarchy?
oh, wait, rowan williams can keep saying stupid stuff. carry on. :lol:
We have a really good choice of british builders. To name a few, Feline, JJ guitars and Patrick Eggle. Each with good reputations and reasonable prices.
+1, i hope so.
the irony being that in this recession, the stuff that I (and people like me) was always doing and being ridiculed for doing, now everyone's doing, only 100 times worse to the verge of being miserly...
i dunno, i mean i always saved for stuff. Barring a student loan (which doesn't count because the govt. more or less made it that you had to take one out unless you were filthy rich, plus if you don't have or lose your job you no longer have to pay it back), i don't have any debt...
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We have a really good choice of british builders. To name a few, Feline, JJ guitars and Patrick Eggle. Each with good reputations and reasonable prices.
+1, i hope so.
the irony being that in this recession, the stuff that I (and people like me) was always doing and being ridiculed for doing, now everyone's doing, only 100 times worse to the verge of being miserly...
i dunno, i mean i always saved for stuff.
Good for you Dave - spending within your own limits and carefully saving to get what you want
That is why the payment by installment scheme I run works well (and I'm sure others run similar schemes)
It pretty much works the same as you saving up the money to buy what you want, except as it's for a custom built guitar by starting the project off and paying as you go along, hopefullly you don't have to wait too long once you've finished paying.
No credit terms and finance agreements
No extra percentage to pay
Flexible within reason
Has made it less painful for people to afford high end stuff.
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^ :drink:
i guess, i just don't understand why people didn't realise that spending money you didn't have was a bad idea, and that eventually you'd have to pay it back. and that house prices' rising at ~10 times the rate of inflation was unsustainable. interest rates fluctuate, etc. etc., and the fact that people were LESS careful with money which they were borrowing than if it were their own (i mean, seriously, what? how does that even make sense? :stupid: ), were more willing to pay inflated prices for stuff with money which incurred interest payments etc....
don't get me wrong, i blame the banks and the governments a lot too. at least the ordinary people could use the excuse that they weren't qualified in risk assessment or finance etc...
:)
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I wish I had bought the Axon midi controller i need instead of waiting until after Christmas. It was around 378 at the start of December and now they're 418 (pounds)
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I think it will be a friend. The high street tell us that it's a bad year because sales have not gone up again, but how can sales go up year on year for ever? Basically they have mainly done well, just not as well this year. But boards and shareholders are still making good money as usual and taking the cream to fund their own lavish lifestyles, but at the same time trying to worry everybody into panic buying to spur the econemy on.
Capitalistm does work, but occationally the big players need to be pegged back and give everybody else a chance.
And I hope not to offend anybody but Woollworths have been shiteee for years, Whittard only sold tea at very inflated prices and Zavvi were A) related to Woolworths and B) have been in competion with MP3 download's for ages. It's very convenient to blame the credit crunch lateley, when bad management and faliure to adapt to the the market would closer to the mark.
So, buy quality once instead of shitee 5 times, buy it locally and but the things you really need. Quality costs money but £1500 on a hand made instrument is not a lot of money, but £200 on a gadget you dont need is.
And I wish the press would stop doom mongering to grab headlines, it does not help!
I think basically we have to look at it as a positive and make the most of it.....
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I hope it will be a friend, even more 2010 :D
Or I'll take to delay my plans :cry:
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Well so far, apart from the day job situation, it is looking good gig wise for me.I have 30 booked in the diary. I did 68 last year and at this point last year had fewer in the diary. My old Strat is gonna get another hammering.
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A good way of looking at it Mr 38th, we should all just play more music and not worry about it :D
Let me know if any of your gigs are near Stockport / Manchester.....
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i dunno, i mean i always saved for stuff. Barring a student loan (which doesn't count because the govt. more or less made it that you had to take one out unless you were filthy rich, plus if you don't have or lose your job you no longer have to pay it back), i don't have any debt...
I got my statement through the other day and I owe them £17k. w**kers, last year they charged me at nearly 5%. Couple that with the fact that I've been paying it for a year and not a singe payment has gone off the balance. Double w**kers.
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i dunno, i mean i always saved for stuff. Barring a student loan (which doesn't count because the govt. more or less made it that you had to take one out unless you were filthy rich, plus if you don't have or lose your job you no longer have to pay it back), i don't have any debt...
I got my statement through the other day and I owe them £17k. w**kers, last year they charged me at nearly 5%. Couple that with the fact that I've been paying it for a year and not a singe payment has gone off the balance. Double w**kers.
Thats a lot of dosh dude! Did you learn a subject that will get you a well paid job? Tell me you didn't learn Psychology!! :o
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Student life is not like it used to be in "The Young Ones"!!
I went to Uni during the transition between full grants and monster loans... I owe enough but nowhere near the amount students are saddled with now.
Funny thing is it was a Labour gov that forced all those seeking a degree into massive debt...
The same labour ministers who got ALL THEIR FEES PAID!!
Those are real bar-steward.
Back in the day Ben Elton (New Labour Millionaire Arsehole) and the right on brigade moaned about Maggie Thatcher...
She was no saint but the damage done to this once great country by the current $%&#ers will impact generations.
It makes me sick remembering that I once believed that the scumbag Blair gave a sh!t about social justice. PDT_046 PDT_045 PDT_021
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i'm not sure how much i owe, they haven't sent me a statement in a while. last time i checked it was something like 11k though. i'll not be too keen if they're charging at 5%, though, the only reason that the govt. got the whole student loans thing passed was because it was supposed to be tied to inflation (though i guess inflation was quite high up until quite recently- with any luck the student loans rate should fall soon). what was rather nice was that for ages the student loan rate was lower than inflation, so the longer you kept it the less you were paying back... :lol:
^ agreed about the hypocrisy of labour MPs who got free university educations. what really annoys me is how they didn't see (well, it's either that, or didn't care- they can take their pick, either they're incompetent idiots or evil) that vastly increasing the numbers going to university was going to (a) devalue degrees and the school exam results in general and (b) cost a heck of a lot of money which we couldn't afford without resorting to charging people. it seems ridiculous to persuade a lot of people to go to university to do degrees which may not help with job prospects/future earning potential, then have the gall to tell them that they owe 10k. and with current fees (which could rise further), it could be more like 20-30k debts.
and then they blithely say, "oh, but it won't put anyone off going!"
how the hell would it not? you can't just say something and make it happen, even king canute knew that with the whole waves thing.
i don't like the tories either (in a perfect world neither would get near govt), but this labour govt. is extremely messed up.
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Considering I work for the NHS I can be confident that people will always be sick!
Sadly that person is my wife, and 2008 left us with more shitee news than we can both handle for the time being, the last low blow arriving on New Years Eve.
Seriously................2009 can only be better!