Yeah, I just don't know about the top of the Potbelly. I think veneer's more likely than foto-flame, because the flame pattern doesn't seem to repeat (from what I've read of Fender foto-flames, the film was almost like wallpaper, with the pattern repeating every few inches). And the flame on mine isn't identical to ones I've seen in photos (although it's not wildly different either).
When I change the pickups I'll scr@pe a bit of paint out of the cavity and try to spot the veneer.