Whoa! Spooky freaky guitar coincidence!

[Twinfan]

I was just updating my guitar records for insurance purposes and noticed something spooky!

My Custom Shop Fender Relic Tele has a Certificate of Authenticity dated 13 March 2008.
My PRS McCarty Korina has a hangtag final assembly date of.......

13 March 2008!  :o

Must have been a good day for guitars!  What are the chances of that happening??????

[bucketshred]

I think you should get rid of that Tele as it may be possessed. I'll happily take it off you :D

[Philly Q]

Must have been a good day for guitars!  What are the chances of that happening??????

About 366:1, I guess! 

It is an interesting coincidence, though.

[Will]

Well, maths isn't my strong point, but I do remember my old teacher saying something along the lines of their being a high very high chance of two people having the same birthday within a class of 30.
We were the only class in our year that didn't I think :?

[dave_mc]

About 366:1, I guess! 

It is an interesting coincidence, though.

yeah, i guess so (assuming you knew they were all built in the same year).

however, now i think about it, wouldn't that only be the odds if dave had 2 guitars? how many guitars do you have again, dave? 600 (just kidding, how many is it really though)? that's going to lower the odds quite a bit.

[blue]

want a coincidence? on the 21st of march i'm goin to my friend's wedding.  it's also my birthday.  and his.  and his fiancee's.  and his best man's first child's. 

and a girl i used to see. 

i was born on the same day as drew barrymore too, but we'll ignore that one :) 

it's ayrton senna's birthday too, but that's trivia, not a coincidence.  at least, not til i win three F1 world titles ;)

[Twinfan]

how many guitars do you have again, dave? 600 (just kidding, how many is it really though)? that's going to lower the odds quite a bit.

I've got 19 at the moment, of which 3 are for sale.  So I'll be at a very low 16 soon(!)  :o

[Philly Q]

how many guitars do you have again, dave? 600 (just kidding, how many is it really though)? that's going to lower the odds quite a bit.

I've got 19 at the moment, of which 3 are for sale.  So I'll be at a very low 16 soon(!)  :o

Oh god, I'm forging ahead.  But probably not in value terms. 

I don't think I'll ever be able to get below 20.

[dave_mc]

I've got 19 at the moment, of which 3 are for sale.  So I'll be at a very low 16 soon(!)  :o

well then (assuming that you know the construction date of each of your guitars, which you probably don't, and that they were all manufactured in the same year, which they probably weren't) the odds would be 19/366 = 0.052 or about 1 in 20. i think. :)

[FernandoDuarte]

I've got 19 at the moment, of which 3 are for sale.  So I'll be at a very low 16 soon(!)  :o

Oh god, I'm forging ahead.  But probably not in value terms. 
I don't think I'll ever be able to get below 20.

And from the "I lost the bet" thread:

To be fair I was undecided if would be you or PhillyQ who would buy first :D

Nah, no contest.  

hummmm :P
Seems there is a contest... :lol:

[Philly Q]

Oh no, if it's a contest (and it isn't) I don't want to be in it.  I want to stop buying guitars!!   :lol:

[FernandoDuarte]

Oh no, if it's a contest (and it isn't) I don't want to be in it.  I want to stop buying guitars!!   :lol:

We all want :D

[Twinfan]

well then (assuming that you know the construction date of each of your guitars, which you probably don't, and that they were all manufactured in the same year, which they probably weren't) the odds would be 19/366 = 0.052 or about 1 in 20. i think. :)

Nah, you're wrong.  Chance of one guitar from 2008 being from a particular day in the year?  1/366.  Chances of two independant guitars from 2008 both being from the same day?

1/366 * 1/366 = 1 in 133,956  (!!!)

[Will]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_paradox#Calculating_the_probability

Take a read through that, I think that explains it

[Philly Q]

well then (assuming that you know the construction date of each of your guitars, which you probably don't, and that they were all manufactured in the same year, which they probably weren't) the odds would be 19/366 = 0.052 or about 1 in 20. i think. :)

Nah, you're wrong.  Chance of one guitar from 2008 being from a particular day in the year?  1/366.  Chances of two independant guitars from 2008 both being from the same day?

1/366 * 1/366 = 1 in 133,956  (!!!)

Nah, that's different.  Suppose you have 366 Teles, all built on different days in 2008, and 366 McKorinas, all built on different days in 2008.  Then the chance that you pick out the two guitars both built on 13 March 2008 is 1 in 133,956.

But you already have just one Tele, built on 13 March 2008.  It's a given.  Then picking out a McKorina built on the same day is a totally independent event, and the chance of that is 1 in 366.