As for NOS valves, if you had to have an artificial heart would you want a new one that had a 1 in 1000 chance of going wrong, or would you prefer one 5 times the price that at the time of manufacture had a 1 in 2000 chance of failiure but has been kicking around in someone's drawer for 30 years, dropped and had beer spilt on it?
Not quite sure of your point here.
Valves are the heart of your amp, while NOS valves were (in their original pristine state) more reliable than new valves, 30+ years of being rattled around in boxes, drawers and whatever will have taken its toll on the reliability of the valve. For the sake of reliability it's wiser on the whole to buy new as you really don't know how the NOS valves have been looked after.
Tone wise older is better IMHO but I'd still buy new because of reliability.
To be honest, I completely disagree. Unless they are banged around or abused in some away, valves stay pretty much inert (certainly for several decades). The internals are in an (almost) vacuum and therefore there is no oxidation or change to the metals inside.
I have used somewhere in the region of 80-120 vintage valves, and never had a failure. In probably half as many new valves I've had two complete failures, so the stats for me certainly backs up buying old valves.
With those who actually use good quality vintage valves, the general concensus backs up my experience. The key is to get the valves from a reliable source, or to actually know a bit about it when shopping for valves on places like ebay.
Often folks, wanting to experiment, buy a couple of dodgy "almost dead" NOS tubes off ebay, and then slate all NOS/vintage valves just because they bought a couple of dogs.
The real world experience of vintage valves is that they sit unmoved for many decades, not "rattling around". And yes, rattling around for a few years is quite likely to destroy any valve.
The key problem with modern guitarists trying to use vintage valves is that they can be very expensive from good dealers, or it can be very risky in buying from ebay unless you know what to look for.
if you educate yourself a bit then you can pick up almost new old valves for the same (or cheaper) prices as new valves. I'd take a good old valve any day of the week, both for tone and reliability.